Introduction (X-45) forecasting fundamentally changes whenever we try to predict a very rare event. We must fundamentally shift what we are modelling to focus on tail events. From model performance metrics and target definition to the tail model and the transformer output heads, rare-event forecasting is difficult. Difficult yet worth it. The Halloween storms of 2003 began as a disturbance on the Sun, a single dark spot that created one of the strongest space weather events of the satellite era. Through late October to early November, a series of enormous active regions churned across the solar disk. This released powerful flares and clouds of magnetized plasma towards Earth. This event presented a uniquely aesthetic flair-up with radio-wave implications. Satellites malfunctioned, GPS and radio were disrupted, and airlines rerouted polar flights. According to NOAA, power grids worldwide were affected, with some currents exceeding 100 amps, leading to the Malmö Blackout in Sweden.…