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Why I Don’t Trust LLMs to Decide When the Weather Changed | Towards Data Science

Towards Data Science·Fernando Arizmendi·27 days ago
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have a simple problem: they show you the forecast, but they don’t tell you when it actually changed. That might sound trivial. It isn’t. Modern numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems — like ECMWF IFS — produce remarkably accurate forecasts at ~9 km resolution, updated every few hours. The data is already very good. The problem is not the forecast. The problem is attention : knowing when a change in that data is actually meaningful. I didn’t learn that from software engineering. I learned it years earlier, studying chaos theory at the Instituto Balseiro. It was there, working through dynamical systems, that I first encountered a slightly unsettling idea: A system can be completely deterministic and still be practically unpredictable. That idea stayed with me. And years later, when I started building AI systems, I realized that many of them were ignoring it.…

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