This article is part of The D.C. Brief, TIME’s politics newsletter. Sign up here to get stories like this sent to your inbox. There’s a shift in tone in Washington that’s emerged in the past few weeks. In my conversations on Capitol Hill and K Street alike, it’s impossible to miss. Democrats seem more upbeat and Republicans more deflated as the outlook of the midterm elections grows more lopsided. It’s giving 2006 vibes —the comparison Republicans have been hoping to avoid at all costs.  The parallels are apparent. Twenty years earlier, George W. Bush was in his second term of a presidency mired in a Middle East War and struggling to combat soaring energy costs. Similarly, Donald Trump is posting some of his worst poll numbers yet, with his foreign policy efforts putting him in Richard Nixon territory—all while the price of gas stands at $4.45.  The President’s party typically faces net losses in midterm elections, but 2026 may well be a breed apart.…