Inflation could surge past 6pc if the war in the Middle East triggers a prolonged energy price shock, the Bank of England has warned. Policymakers voted to keep borrowing costs on hold at 3.75pc even as Andrew Bailey, the Bank’s Governor, warned of further price rises. The Bank warned that under its worst-case scenario—a drawn-out war leading to $100 a barrel oil into 2028—inflation would peak at 6.2pc This would require a “forceful” increase in borrowing costs that could take interest rates above 5pc. However, Mr Bailey sought to allay fears of imminent rate hikes, adding that policymakers were also concerned about a weaker economy. Unemployment is now set to climb above two million for the first time in more than a decade. Mr Bailey said modest price rises that did not trigger higher wage demands would allow the Bank to proceed “without further increasing rates”.…