The Middle East conflict makes clear that great‑power politics now matter as much as OPEC quotas and output When  Brent crude briefly crossed $120 a barrel  last week amid renewed Hormuz tensions and the UAE’s exit from OPEC, market reactions suggested something beyond just another cyclical oil shock. Markets are recognizing the erosion of the framework that governed global crude flows for decades. The UAE’s move has triggered familiar debates over quotas, spare capacity, and Gulf rivalries. But focusing on cartel mechanics overlooks a deeper shift. OPEC’s fracture reveals the premise that producers could manage supply while others guaranteed stable sea lanes was always conditional. That era has ended. For much of its history, OPEC operated within a relatively predictable system. Oil moved through a handful of critical chokepoints, the  Strait of Hormuz  foremost among them, and the cartel adjusted production to influence prices.…