In Part 1, Murray Cantor reframed technical debt as economic liability and argued that uncertainty is not an annoyance to be minimized, but the core feature of IT investment. Once you accept that premise, a deeper question emerges: how should organizations reason — and decide — under uncertainty? “You Are Inexorably Drawn to Bayesian Thinking” Murray Cantor: If you believe these three principles — think like an investor, embrace uncertainty, take a systems perspective — you are inexorably drawn to Bayesian thinking. Because what are you doing? Your initial estimates are priors, and then you update them with information. It’s exactly Bayesian thinking. Betz: That’s been the missing link for me — how to handle the initialization parameters when I don’t have 30 clean data points. Murray Cantor: The whole point of Bayesian reasoning is that it’s all about what you believe, and you use data to update your beliefs. But you can’t have just the data without beliefs and really learn anything.…