Pricey bets tied to real-world military and defense actions on the prediction marketplace Polymarket are succeeding at surprisingly high rates, according to a new report raising alarm bells about insider trading on the platform and others like it. The Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) published a report on Thursday analyzing settled Polymarket markets for potential signs of insider trading, including unusually successful longshot bets. The report found that across most markets on the platform, longshot bets—defined by the group as wagers valued at $2,500 or more with odds below 35%—had a success rate of about 14%. But the numbers were significantly higher in political markets, where longshot bets succeeded 25% of the time. Within that category, bets tied to military and defense-related events had an even more striking success rate of 52%, according to the report. To say that kind of success rate is statistically unlikely is the very definition of making a redundant statement.…