The one, the only, the Notorious, Conor McGregor, is finally making his return to the UFC in a welterweight bout against Max Holloway on July 11th at UFC 329. Unfortunately for those hoping for a return of the old McGregor, the market is not in his favor and hasn't been since it first opened on May 18th. At the time of writing, Max Holloway is a heavy favorite of 69% on Kalshi and 68% on Polymarket. McGregor has 31% and 32%, respectively.  Reality of the market While Conor will always bring the hype whenever he hits the octagon, there is no denying that he’s beyond his prime and very well has been since he lost to Khabib in 2018. Including that loss, he’s gone 1-3 in his last four fights, with all losses being early finishes.  On the other end, McGregor could not have drawn a tougher opponent in his return with Holloway not only being very active since 2023 with six fights since then, but he’s gone 4-2 with two of his wins coming by way of KO/TKO.…