Stay up to date with notifications from The Independent Notifications can be managed in browser preferences. All News Sport Culture Lifestyle The UK has been warned it faces a recession in the second half of the year (Getty/iStock) The energy crisis resulting from the Iran war could reduce the UK economy by £35bn, even in an optimistic scenario, according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (Niesr). Niesr warns that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could plunge the UK into recession during the latter half of this year. David Aikman, Niesr's director, described the forecasts as a “serious blow” to the government's economic growth ambitions, highlighting the UK's exposure to global energy shocks. The Bank of England is anticipated to raise interest rates, with Niesr predicting a rise to 4% in July, potentially reaching 5.25% if inflationary pressures from the conflict continue.…