brent crossed 115 this morning. it was at 111 yesterday. 4 dollars in one session. the fed announces rates this afternoon and every word they write about inflation expectations just got more complicated.

oil at 115 feeds into everything. food, shipping, electricity in gas dependent regions, jet fuel for the airlines that havent already cancelled routes. the fed can move rates but they cant reopen hormuz. this is supply side inflation that monetary policy wasnt built to fix.

gold dropped to 4542 which tells you the market is pricing higher for longer rates even as the thing causing inflation has nothing to do with demand. the disconnect between what the fed can control and what brent is doing is the whole story today.