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Traders now see next Fed interest rate move as a hike following inflation surge
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Traders now see next Fed interest rate move as a hike following inflation surge

CNBC·Jeff Cox·18 days ago
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Construction on the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve building in Washington, DC, US, on Monday, Dec. 15, 2025. Al Drago | Bloomberg | Getty Images Markets for the first time in the current cycle now think the Federal Reserve 's next move will be an interest rate hike. Following a week of surprisingly high inflation readings, traders in the fed funds futures market are pricing in an increase as soon as December, with a much higher certainty into the early part of 2027, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. A December hike has a nearly 51% probability, while a move higher by January carries about a 60% probability with March coming in at better than 71%, according to the measure, which uses prices on 30-day federal funds futures contacts to gauge probabilities. The move comes near the close of a week where both consumer and wholesale inflation posted multi-year highs.…

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