Home Market Outlook Today's Market Summary The Nasdaq has rallied roughly 27% from its March lows, powered almost entirely by semiconductor stocks that have gone parabolic on AI earnings momentum. The single factor I believe will trigger a correction is that hyperscaler free cash flow is turning deeply negative. Rather than selling long-term semiconductor holdings, I'm hedging downside risk using SOXX options, arguing that the AI secular trend remains intact but current valuations leave little room. The market is underestimating geopolitical and macroeconomic risks, particularly the prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption, which could trigger energy shocks and another wave of global inflation. Narong Rammanee/iStock via Getty Images Over the past two months, I have published a series of articles here on Seeking Alpha that all centered around the AI supercycle and supply chain.…