New Zealand’s central bank kept its official cash rate on hold this week. Yet the decision came with a sharp twist. Policymakers now warn rates will climb sooner and climb higher than they projected just three months ago. The shift reflects fresh pressure from an energy shock triggered by conflict in the Middle East. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 3-3 on whether to raise the OCR by 25 basis points. Governor Anna Breman cast the deciding vote to leave the rate at 2.25 percent. That tie-breaker marked the first use of the chair’s casting vote since the committee formed in 2019. But the accompanying statement left little doubt about the next moves. “On balance, the OCR will most likely need to increase sooner and by more than envisaged in the February Monetary Policy Statement,” the bank said. Inflation stands at 3.1 percent. The RBNZ now forecasts it will peak at 4.3 percent in the September quarter before returning to the 2 percent target midpoint only in mid-2027.…