Analogy about climate scenarios. Imagine that you were a parent with a child that lives in your house and does meth and heroin in the basement. His arms are covered in open sores from injecting drugs. You have an idea. Instead of predicting the future, you simply think about what pathway your son is following. You conclude that out of the different possible scenarios, the one that previous behavior aligns with most closely is the meth and heroin scenario. When you point this out to your son, he decides to sign a pledge. It goes into detail about how his drug use will reach net zero in several years. He will then become what he calls the opposite of a drug user; drug negative by going to college and getting straight As, and going to medical school, becoming a brain surgeon and making 500,000+ dollars a year. After signing the pledge, your son tells you “don’t worry.…