For an upcoming weather system (such as the one currently traveling across the mid-US, shown here) what are some ways of estimating 1) the "energy" of the storm, and 2) what mitigating factors may be present around the storm that may increase or reduce its intensity before reaching your area, such as season, winds, terrain, average ground temps, other storm systems, etc. ?

I realize there are likely a number of scientific models (and that everything is intertwined), but I'm wondering about more of "surface-level" (no pun intended) or rule-of-thumb methods you may use.

Thanks

With an eastwardly-moving system, what could cause differences in two days in Raleigh and Norfolk?