A Chinese military takeover of Taiwan is often portrayed as inevitable and imminent. For many observers, including those writing in Foreign Affairs , U.S. President Donald Trump’s ambivalent public statements about the United States’ commitments to Taiwan’s defense and apparent indifference to the island’s fate might tempt Beijing to achieve unification with Taiwan through military force soon—possibly before the end of 2026. Washington’s war with Iran and the redeployment of U.S. defenses from the Indo-Pacific to the Middle East have further raised concern that China could seize the island without having to fear a U.S. response. But these speculations misunderstand Beijing’s strategy. China wants to unify with Taiwan at the lowest possible cost, and it currently believes that unification will become easier and less costly as time passes. As China develops the military and economic capabilities to deter U.S.…