Geosphere (2026). DOI: 10.1130/ges02936.1"> Multi-year threshold predictions and burn severity inputs for the 2020 El Dorado Fire (California). Credit: Geosphere (2026). DOI: 10.1130/ges02936.1 In August of 2020, the Grizzly Creek fire burned more than 30,000 acres around Interstate 70 in Colorado's Glenwood Canyon. The following summer, several rainstorms swept across the area and sent devastating debris flows, fast-moving torrents of mud, rocks, and water coursing across the highway. The road was closed for weeks, causing an estimated economic cost to the national economy of about $1,000,000 every hour. Two years after the fire, officials were braced for more debris flows to be triggered by even light rains. They shut down the interstate several times as a precaution, warning that the closures would continue until geologists determined that there was no longer a risk. However, in 2022, the debris flows never happened, as vegetation recovered and restabilized the hillslopes.…