Group D was supposed to be straightforward. The United States got the home draw, two familiar opponents, and a Turkey side that needed playoff wins just to qualify. Comfortable on paper. Kalshi agrees, at least at the top. Below the Americans, things are messier. Turkey has been rising. Paraguay has been slipping. Australia can't crack 50%. Three teams, one realistic spot, and a final matchday on June 25 that could go in several directions. That's the real market story here. World Cup Group D Qualifiers | Kalshi Market USA | 81% Chance The circumstances don't get much better than this for a host nation. The U.S. plays all three group stage games on the West Coast, opens against a Paraguay side they beat 2-1 in a friendly last fall, and has home crowds for every minute of the group stage. The Yes contract sits at 85 cents, and the 81% probability reflects all of it. Pochettino's side knows these opponents.…