One of my biggest worries for this market is the repricing of the policy path The market has added about 73 bps to the Dec-2030 implied rate since February, and about +27 bps since April. Simply put, this is not the market delaying cuts by a few months, but the whole expected policy path has shifted upward. The market is pricing a Fed that either cuts less, cuts later, or ends up with a higher neutral rate than previously expected. This is important because risk assets can handle “no cuts yet” if growth remains strong, but they have a harder time if the discount rate keeps grinding higher across the whole curve. By the way, this does not mean impending recession, but it does mean we should stay level headed about the risks. submitted by /u/Smart_Money_HQ [link] [comments]