2024 Election # What Are Trump's Chances Of Winning The GOP Primary? ## We did some back-of-the-envelope math. By G. Elliott Morris ## Aug. 29 , 2023, at 2:57 PM ABC News Photo Illustration / REBA SALDANHA Is the 2024 Republican presidential primary already over? If you just look at the polls, you’d be forgiven for thinking so. Consider the state of the states: Several polls published last week showed former President Donald Trump leading in Iowa (with 42 percent to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s 19 percent and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott’s 9 percent), New Hampshire (at 50 percent versus DeSantis at 11 and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy at 10 percent) and South Carolina (at 48 percent versus 14 percent for both DeSantis and Scott). And in national polls, Trump currently has the support of 50 percent of GOP primary voters13 — a slide of 2 percentage points since last Wednesday’s GOP primary debate, but still a commanding lead over his opponents.…