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Will We Ever Be Able To Forecast Volcanic Eruptions Like Weather? | Quanta Magazine

Quanta Magazine·Robin George Andrews May 8, 2026·24 days ago
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It should be possible, but getting there will require a greater understanding of subsurface physics. Celcius Pictor for Quanta Magazine Introduction I n the summer of 1991, Pinatubo, a volcano in the Philippines, self-destructed. The eruption started on June 12, and three days later it culminated in a tremendous explosion. By the time pyroclastic flows — incandescent avalanches of molten rock and gas — tumbled down its sterilized slopes, Pinatubo’s peak had been obliterated and replaced by a 2.5-kilometer-wide chasm. The eruption killed more than 800 people, mainly because roofs, weighed down by rain-saturated ash, collapsed. But it could have been so much worse : About 250,000 people, across multiple cities and a sprawling U.S. Air Force base, lived in the volcano’s shadow. When Pinatubo started convulsing and belching steam in April of that year, scientists from the United States and the Philippines deployed an array of instruments that tracked the volcano’s inner tumult.…

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