TLDR: The fact that AI will improve does not automatically mean it will replace most workers. Progress matters, but so do limits, timelines, economics, and diminishing returns. The Theory There's an ongoing theory that AI will take most jobs, and definitely all software development jobs. I think this is highly exaggerated for a few reasons. In this post, I want to look at how AI evolves, where it might take us, and what that means. The Worst AI You'll Ever Use Today's AI is the worst AI you'll ever use. I bet you've heard something like this before. If you've been interacting with LLMs over the past year, this is obvious. So, what does this mean? If we think about it, this statement is true about almost any piece of technology, and not just computer science. We have the worst cars, planes, boats, TVs, medicines, gym equipment we'll ever have. Maybe not zippers, these are roughly the same since invention (crazy, I know). But none of these things have the capability of taking our jobs, you might argue.…