Cartels die in two ways: Either through a price war or from sudden exits. The UAE has chosen the second. From May 1, OPEC’s third-largest producer will leave the cartel and the OPEC+ after six decades. The UAE pumps about 3.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) — roughly 4 per cent of global oil output and around 13 per cent of OPEC’s. The announcement landed in the ninth week of the US-Israel war on Iran. Brent is at $111 a barrel, up roughly 76 per cent in a year, and the Strait of Hormuz is functionally shut. For Abu Dhabi, the move is overdue. The UAE has spent a decade lifting its capacity past 4.8 mb/d, only to be capped by quotas set largely in Riyadh. By 2027, it is targeting 5 mb/d — a goal flatly incompatible with cartel discipline. According to Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei, they chose this moment because the price effect would be minimal. That has held true so far, with Brent rising under 3 per cent, most of that pinned on Iran. The UAE has for years pushed for higher production baselines.…