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How to Avoid the Perils of Political Forecasting

Knowledge at Wharton·@HashtagPLUS·about 1 month ago
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Tune into any cable news program and chances are you’ll see pundits offering their insights and forecasting political outcomes. And often times, they get things incredibly wrong: The 2016 presidential campaign, for example, was filled with forecasters who predicted a solid Hillary Clinton win. Philip Tetlock, a social psychologist and Wharton management professor, looks at these kinds of failures in his book, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? (The book was first published in 2005, but Tetlock updated it for republication this year.) He also co-wrote Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction , which was released in 2015. Tetlock, who is also a Penn Integrates Knowledge professor at the University of Pennsylvania, spoke with the  Knowledge at Wharton radio show, which airs on SiriusXM channel 111 , about the widening chasm between science-based political forecasting and the snappy sound bites that are just right for television but often miss the mark.…

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