Summary

• US Treasuries are playing a coy game of waiting and watching for another attempt at a break above 4.5%.
• The 10Y euro swap rate is stuck between 3.0% and 3.1% for now. Ahead, the path will depend on the growth impact and potential second-round inflation effects from elevated oil prices.
• The China watch comes to an end on Friday. Back to watching Iran, then.

By Padhraic Garvey, CFA, Regional Head of Research, Americas and Michiel Tukker, Senior UK & Eurozone Rates Strategist

Treasuries on a holding pattern, but still tilted with an upside bias to yields

President Trump's China