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Do wet or dry soils trigger thunderstorms? It depends on how the wind blows

Nature·@CraigR.Ferguson·2 months ago
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Some of the most intense thunderstorms on Earth form in tens of minutes, constituting a major forecasting and risk-communication challenge. Developing thunderstorms contain a strong, localized vertical updraught of air, which can be detected by ground-based weather radars and used to inform real-time weather forecasting and severe-thunderstorm alert systems. However, in West Africa, where more than 60% of precipitation is from intense, short-lived thunderstorms1,2, there are no operational ground-based weather radars. Instead, forecasters rely on numerical weather-prediction systems and thermal infrared imagery. With these tools, experienced weather forecasters in West Africa can predict thunderstorm initiation around 4–5 hours in advance. However, they can determine the storm site to within only around 200 kilometres of where it will initiate3.…

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