Google I/O 2026 is coming. And I already know how it will go. Next Monday, May 19, Google will take the stage for I/O 2026. Sundar Pichai will say the word "AI" approximately 400 times. The audience will clap at things they do not fully understand. And somewhere around minute 47, someone on Twitter will post "this could have been an email." I say this with affection. I watch these events every year. And every year, the pattern is the same: big promises, impressive demos, and a creeping feeling that the most interesting stuff is happening backstage, not on it. But this year feels different. Or at least, it feels like Google needs it to be different. So let me walk through what is expected and what I actually think about it. Gemini 4.0 (or 3.8 or whatever they call it) This is the big one. Google is expected to announce the next version of Gemini, its flagship AI model. Whether it lands as Gemini 4.0 or some weird decimal like 3.8, the message will be the same: we are closing the gap with OpenAI and Anthropic.…