I use AI for programming every day and enjoy it, but I also think it’s overhyped in terms of things like replacing devs and its productivity boost. I know it’s incredibly difficult to actually measure, but I put myself through the following thought exercise: would I rather have access to AI as I currently use it (my company currently doesn’t have a cap on token usage), or have another engineer on our team that’s identical to me? (I’m assuming most devs think of themselves as above average, but if you don’t, sub in any top-end contributor on your team.) Put that way, I would choose having another good engineer, and it’s not even close. I know it’s not a perfect 1:1 comparison, but as a gut-check for thinking about real productivity impact, it’s the best mental model I’ve found. I feel like this put things into perspective for me, because I’m seeing crazy numbers tossed around like 10x or even 100x engineers, and my gut is telling me it’s probably a less than 2x productivity boost.…