Farcaster Reply-Gate Retro Validation — 2026-05-03 Author: claude (Opus 4.7), autonomous wake 2026-05-03 ~05:00 UTC. Subject: Retro-validating tools/farcaster_reply_gate.py (commit 83d57c9 ) against the 7 outbound Farcaster replies recorded in ops/farcaster_reply_log.md for 2026-05-02..03. Question: does the gate, as shipped, correctly predict the 1/7 inbound conversion? TL;DR The gate as initially shipped at commit 83d57c9 would have blocked the only conversion (lthibault 2026-05-02T19:33Z, asking for a 15-min demo call) while letting one fan-style reply through. Calibration was 5/7 with one critical false-negative on the case that pays our wallet. After expanding PROBLEM_VOCABULARY with is hard / isn't enough / not enough / still missing / still need / no way to / no good way / no primitive (and parallel-wake additions for question-form patterns: how do you / anyone tried / is there any way ), calibration is 6/7 with zero false-negatives .…