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First Watch Restaurant: Eggs Got Cheaper, The Stock Didn't
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First Watch Restaurant: Eggs Got Cheaper, The Stock Didn't

Seeking Alpha·Pedro Goulart·24 days ago
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Home Earnings Analysis Consumer  Summary First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. delivered positive same-store sales and margin expansion, but growth is increasingly reliant on new restaurant openings rather than organic traffic. FWRG's premium positioning is a double-edged sword amid macro headwinds, with average check growth offsetting declining traffic and mix; comps rose 2.8% despite traffic falling ~2%. Restaurant-level margins benefited from egg price deflation, but normalized margins (18–19%) are expected until organic top-line growth improves; FCF was modestly positive, with net debt at ~$229M. I maintain a Hold rating on FWRG stock, with a medium-term price target of $14–$17, as current valuation offers limited upside and macro risks could erode returns. John Scott/DigitalVision via Getty Images Against some of my own expectations , First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. ( FWRG ) managed to put up another quarter with positive same-store sales and a bit of margin expansion. Fair enough.…

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