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The economic rise of Latin America? - Marginal REVOLUTION
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The economic rise of Latin America? - Marginal REVOLUTION

Marginal REVOLUTION·Tyler Cowen·about 1 month ago
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When the world goes looking for shelter during an oil war, the destinations are predictable: the dollar, gold, short-term Treasuries. Nobody puts Latin American sovereign bonds on that list. Yet as the dollar surged in March, the region’s average sovereign spread didn’t move. There was no contagion. The reason is structural, not lucky: as net commodity exporters borrowing in their own currencies, these governments earned more dollars from the crisis than they owed. This reflects, too, the shift in borrowing profile. Brazil issues 96 per cent of its sovereign debt in reals, for example. Mexico, more than 80 per cent in pesos. And in the first quarter, with the Iran war already under way, Brazilian local bonds returned 7.3 per cent in dollar terms. Colombia, 4.2. Even Mexico, the regional laggard, eked out 0.3. All three carry the same “emerging market” label as Thailand, which fell 7.2 per cent, and India, which lost 5.9.…

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