Trump installed Warsh to cut rates. On his first day as Fed Chair, markets price in rate hikes instead. The irony is not political. It is arithmetic. Jerome Powell's term as Federal Reserve Chair expires today. Kevin Warsh, confirmed 54 to 45 on Tuesday in the most partisan vote for a Fed chair in modern history, takes the gavel. Senator John Fetterman was the only Democrat to cross the aisle. Powell was confirmed 80 to 19 for his second term four years ago. When Warsh was nominated, markets were pricing two quarter-point rate cuts by year-end. Today the probability that the Fed's next move is a hike stands at 45 percent. The shift took a single month. The Numbers That Changed April's Consumer Price Index came in at 3.8 percent year-over-year, the hottest reading in three years. Core inflation held at 2.8 percent. Producer prices ran hotter: 6.0 percent year-over-year with a 1.4 percent monthly surge, the largest since 2022. Energy accounted for more than three-quarters of the increase.…