Menu

Post image 1
Post image 2
Post image 3
Post image 4
Post image 5
1 / 5
0

The macro crystal ball: macro framing and historical antecedents

Credit Writedowns·Edward Harrison·about 1 month ago
#MLvzOq0R
Reading 0:00
15s threshold

Happy June!! Listen, I want to start this month with a thought piece rather than a data piece. And this is going to be a pretty long post. But I think it’s important because I plan to build on it. Now, I showed you some data last week on jobless claims , a series I have been following for some 20 years. And what was clear to me was that the nature of this recession and recovery is so different than previous cyclical troughs that we really have to go back to basics in understanding how the economy and markets will develop. And that requires a good macro framing first, followed by data from historical antecedents second because the historical comparisons will be limited in their applicability. So I am going to tell you how I am thinking about this. And hopefully, we can turn to the data in due course.…

Continue reading — create a free account

Join HashtagPLUS to read full articles, follow hashtags, vote, and join the conversation.

Read More