Data: AAA; Chart: Ben Geman/Axios Pain at the pump is easing, but gas is far costlier heading into the summer than last year — and what comes next is wildly unpredictable. Why it matters: High gas prices are the most visible economic effect of the Iran war for many Americans grappling with inflation . Driving the news: The U.S. average price for regular is $4.39 per gallon on Friday, per AAA — down 16 cents over the last week as the U.S. and Iran closed in on a possible deal to extend the ceasefire. But it's still far above the roughly $3 that Americans were paying right before the war started. Prices are seeing their largest weekly drop of the year, Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at the fuel data and analysis firm GasBuddy, posted on X . The big picture: Retail gas prices are tethered to oil prices set on global markets, even though the U.S. is the world's largest producer and imports relatively little from the Middle East.…