How I automated value discovery in binary oil markets using Python, Yahoo Finance, and the Polymarket API Why Prediction Markets? Polymarket lets you trade on the probability of real‑world events. There are often inefficiencies—especially when fear or greed distorts prices. But manually checking dozens of contracts and calculating fair probabilities is tedious. Yesterday, I noticed a juicy set of markets: What price will WTI Crude Oil hit in May 2026? Dozens of binary options—touching $70, $80, $100, $115—each with a YES and NO price. The question was clear: where’s the value? The Idea Build a Python script that: Fetches live WTI spot price and OVX (oil volatility index) from Yahoo Finance, Pulls real‑time Polymarket odds directly from their API (no manual scraping!), Applies a touch‑barrier probability model (Brownian motion with zero drift) for the remaining days of the month, Compares model probabilities to market prices, and Recommends the best trades using the Kelly criterion for position sizing.…