Summary

• Gold has fallen around 12% since the Iran conflict began – a counterintuitive move for an asset widely held as a crisis hedge.
• The sell-off reflects the macro consequences of the shock rather than a breakdown in gold’s safe-haven role.
• We remain constructive, with prices forecast to rise to $5,000/oz by year-end.

By Ewa Manthey, Commodities Strategist

Gold has struggled since the Iran war began

Why gold has sold off during the conflict

Gold’s safe-haven appeal tends to perform best in a financial crisis or growth shock – when