Not long ago, the US Treasury market thought it had the Kevin Warsh trade figured out: Simply bet on the multiple interest rate cuts that the nominee had been expected to deliver if he got the job to lead the Federal Reserve.

Now, with just days to go before Warsh steps into the US central bank’s top job, wagers in the $31 trillion bond market are leaning toward tighter monetary policy, the result of robust economic growth and war-driven inflation worries.