The so-called 'wall of maturities' is a perennial source of investor anxiety: will refinancing risk create a wave of defaults?
To evaluate where refinancing risk is potentially most acute, we analyze the range of capital gaps / surpluses across property types and markets, assuming loans were originated on a rolling quarterly basis.
Across U.S. CRE, refinancing outcomes are not uniform but instead show wide dispersion across markets and property types.
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By Rich Hill, Senior Managing Director - Global Head of Real Estate Research and Strategy | JD Stehwien, Senior Analyst - Research | Art Jones, Senior Director, Global Real Estate Research and Strategy | Thomas McGing, Sr. Analyst - Research
