Forecasters who track the arrival of systems that can handle most cognitive work better than people have shifted their estimates repeatedly in recent years. Some pulled dates closer after the debut of models like ChatGPT. Others pushed them back when scaling seemed to hit snags. Then early 2026 brought fresh model gains from Anthropic that sent many estimates racing forward again. Dan Schwarz charted these moves in detail. He examined repeated forecasts from researchers with strong track records who used roughly the same measure. That measure centers on automating most purely cognitive labor at superior quality, speed and cost. From 2023 into 2025 the majority shortened their timelines. Exceptions stood out. Tamay Besiroglu kept his outlook steadier. But 2025 told a different story. Daniel Kokotajlo and Eli Lifland, authors of the detailed AI 2027 scenario , moved their expectations later. The Metaculus community followed. Dario Amodei of Anthropic and top forecaster Peter Wildeford did the same.…