The future of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and the ability of health care insurers to develop strategies based on government promises are on uncertain ground. In the coming days, the U.S. Court of Federal Claims will decide on lawsuits where insurers seek to recover unpaid dues from the government under an ACA “risk corridor” program that sought to incentivize insurers to offer coverage in markets they might find unattractive. Similarly, payments to insurers have been held up under a “cost sharing reduction” program, where the government subsidizes insurers to offer discounts on deductibles and co-pays to lower-income people. The government’s refusal to pay insurers their dues under the risk corridor program – totaling $12.3 billion – is causing collateral damage as well. It undermines the confidence insurers could have on its promises, raises premiums and therefore federal subsidies, and distorts risk pools, say experts at Wharton and elsewhere.…