Gravitational wave astronomy has been a tremendous breakthrough in our understanding of black holes. We can now detect not just the electromagnetic spectrum of light, but also the very ripples of spacetime created by the mergers of stellar-mass black holes. But our detections of mergers are still tricky and require statistical modeling as well as observational data. The issue is that even large mergers that release several solar masses of gravitational energy only create faint gravitational waves that hover near the noise level of our current detectors. To separate the data from the noise, we use mathematical models of black hole mergers to identify the events. It's a bit like being able to hear your best friend talking in a noisy, crowded room because you are familiar with the sound of their voice. This modeling approach is powerful but needs to be used carefully. Assume the model too strongly, and you end up only seeing what you expect to see.…