Not long ago, the Treasury market thought it had the Kevin Warsh trade figured out: Simply bet on the multiple interest rate cuts that the nominee had been expected to deliver if he got the job to lead the Federal Reserve.

Now, with days left before Warsh steps into the central bank’s top role, a different view is emerging. Instead of rate cuts, wagers in the $31 trillion bond market are leaning toward tighter monetary policy, the upshot of robust US growth and war-driven inflation worries. Yields on 30-year Treasuries are nosing at 5%, while bets on a steeper yield curve — an outgrowth of the market’s earlier easing expectations — have largely been undone.