We are on the doorstep of one of the most significant El Niños of the last 100+ years, yet CPC’s messaging is horrific The above was taken from this week’s ENSO outlook from CPC where they are consistently predicting only a 61% chance of an El Niño by late summer. This is TERRIBLE messaging. It is embarrassing that CPC is unable to communicate more effectively what is nearly certain to occur at this point…a massively significant El Niño event. Why even put this document out with a 61%? It is misleading and puts the public too much at ease regarding the coming event. People can talk about the spring predictability barrier all they want, but the spring predictability barrier cuts both ways. The barrier doesn’t only mean that an El Niño is forecast in the late winter or early spring, and then those forecasts change and no event occurs. It can also mean that a weak Niño is forecasted when a super event is actually going to occur. It just means the error scores are worse at this time of year.…