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The Donroe Doctrine is “a nebulous principle, short on details,” observes historian Carlos Eire, whereas for Leonardo Padura, perhaps the country’s best known novelist, it comes down to the doddering Castro regime: “The Cuban government’s official stance is unambiguous: resist, indefinitely.”

“For some analysts, that 'indefinitely’ coincides with the U.S. midterm elections, which may or may not produce immediate political consequences,” he adds. 

Ultimately, says economist Ricardo Torres, “What Cuba requires is neither foreign rescue nor another official mythology. It needs the space and the institutions to rebuild itself.”