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2 forces are driving US economic growth, and the Iran war threatens to derail both, BofA says

Business Insider·Naomi Buchanan·30 days ago
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ANGELA WEISS/AFP via Getty Images AI and consumer spending have been propping up the US economy in 2025 and 2026. The war in Iran threatens both to disrupt both of those things, Bank of America warns. "Stopping progress in AI would be equivalent to halting the US economy," David Sacks said this week. The US economy is increasingly reliant on just two things to drive continued growth and the Iran war is a threat to both, Bank of America says. Consumer spending and AI capex are major engines of GDP in the last several years. The bank said it expects both to continue contributing, but warned that the Iran war is a major headwind. "Our base case is that the consumer will remain resilient and the AI tailwind will strengthen this year," BofA economists wrote. "But we caution that the Iran war could derail both spending (via inflation) and AI capex (via energy supply bottlenecks)," they added. Here is BofA's case for "two tailwinds, one risk" laid out.…

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