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Everyone is losing on ‘sucker-bet’ laden prediction markets except a few seasoned pros

The Independent·Oisin Mcilroy·28 days ago
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Online prediction markets have surged in popularity in recent years, but a report warns many casual users looking to make a quick buck are falling for a new generation of ‘sucker bets’. Just 0.1% of users earn 67% of the profits on the largest platform Polymarket, according to fresh analysis by The Wall Street Journal which said just 2,000 accounts made a total of nearly half a billion dollars. And it’s rival operator Kalshi also has more losers than winners, with 2.9 unprofitable users for every profitable one based on data from last month. Both firms allow people to bet on the outcome of any number of real-world events , from unemployment figures to a movie’s box office revenue. Total trading volume on both platforms surged to $24.2 billion last month, up from $1.8 million in April the year before, according to analytics firm The Block.…

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