Ah, the perils of predictions. Civis was both right and wrong in forecasting the outcome of the Dunedin City Council by-election. On April 11, Civis discussed the impact of the Single Transferable Vote (STV) system, predicting that former mayor Aaron Hawkins would lead, only to be overtaken as other candidates dropped out. Second and subsequent rankings for other well-supported candidates would count against him. As it turned out, Mr Hawkins led until the last iteration. On final results, Mr Hawkins led Jo Galer by 1673 when the field had narrowed to four. Andrew Whiley dropped out, and Mr Hawkins gained 616 votes, Ms Galer 894 and Conrad Stedman 1515. Mr Stedman fell next, and Ms Galer was the big mover. Mr Hawkins picked up 529 more votes, while Ms Galer’s tally rose by 2033. Where Civis was wrong was in underestimating Ms Galer. She surged into the news over the past month, overcoming a relative lack of profile in her characteristically forthright way. Like her or not, she got her points across.…