The chances of a trade war between the European Union and China are far higher than most Europeans realise. In the corridors of Brussels, insiders have theories to explain this calm. One involves a Trump effect: political and business leaders spend too much time reacting to provocations from  Donald Trump  and his team. Chinese bullying is discreet. If Xi Jinping shared his darkest thoughts on social media, more leaders might realise that, compared with America, China is a more urgent threat. There is complacency on China’s side, too. To prosper, Chinese exporters need the  EU’ s 450m consumers, especially as America walls itself off. Yet Chinese officials shrug off European pleas to tackle trade imbalances. Those now run at €1bn ($1.18bn) a day in China’s favour amid surging Chinese exports to Europe and slumping  EU  sales to China.…