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Why gradual environmental change can trigger sudden species collapse and fragmented populations

phys.org·University of Vienna·21 days ago
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PNAS (2026). https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2604510123"> Evolution of species' range, ecological niche, and local genetic variance under spatial and temporal change. Credit: PNAS (2026). https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2604510123 When species are subjected to changing environments, they can survive in their current location through genetic adaptation. However, this ability is not unlimited. In a study published in PNAS , biomathematician Jitka Polechová of the University of Vienna shows that, even when environmental change is only gradual, there is a tipping point beyond which adaptation can suddenly fail. When that happens, species' ranges may shrink or populations may fragment into separate subpopulations. Understanding the factors that determine the limits of adaptation is essential for predicting how species will respond to climate change and other environmental pressures. Until now, theoretical approaches have largely treated ecological and evolutionary processes separately.…

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