The most rigorous international study of firm-level AI impact to date has landed, and its headline finding is more constructive than many expected. Across nearly 6,000 verified executives in four countries, AI has delivered modest aggregate shifts in productivity or employment over the past three years. The measured impact reflects the early phases of deployment rather than a failure of the technology. The working paper [PDF], published by the National Bureau of Economic Research and produced by teams from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the Bank of England, the Deutsche Bundesbank and Macquarie University, found that over 90% of firms report no measurable change headcount attributable to AI over the past three years. Given the short time horizon and the concentration of AI use in discrete functions, such incremental rather than transformative effects are consistent with how general purpose technologies have evolved historically. Adoption of AI is widespread.…